Web 2.0

inCode, a VeriSign Company, has announced its Top 10 predictions for the game-changing events that will shape the wireless industry in 2008.

The predictions cover major trends ranging from who will win the communication standard wars, what role Google will play in the wireless world after January’s spectrum auction and whether or not consumers will finally open up to digital content and mobile advertising.

Web 2.0, one of the major online trends of 2007, will meet its end in 2008 according to leading UK web testing company SciVisum, and rising online revenues will signal the demise of high street retailers. As part of its predictions for e-commerce in 2008, SciVisum cites the main drivers for Web 2.0’s decline as the exponential growth in the number of User Generated Content (UGC) websites facing a backlash from cautious advertisers not wanting their brand to appear in front of unsuitable content.

“2008 is set to be a watershed year for e-commerce. Consumers and companies will continue to adopt a nomadic attitude towards Web 2.0 websites flocking to the ‘next big thing’, until the market becomes so saturated consumers will actually be turned off them,” said Deri Jones, CEO, SciVisum.

“But just as significantly, it will also be the year that high street revenues start to decline. Because of this, retailers will focus on eliminating the background problems that currently plague their websites and negatively impact sales. Those that don’t will die with the high street,” added Jones.

SciVisum has identified four further areas it says will revolutionise e-commerce operations in 2008.

HIGH STREET DYING

Each year we see significant increases in the amount of online spending. The latest Government figures show that online spending reached £130bn in 2006 (Office for National Statistics) – a growth of 29 per cent. This figure is forecast to rapidly increase to £162bn by 2020 (Uswitch). High street retailers that have good eCommerce platforms in place are thriving and are able to take advantage of the cultural shift in the way we shop. Those that haven’t will either make the change this year or disappear. The dramatic fall in share prices for companies in the retail property sector – British Land’s by 40 per cent in 12 months (*1) and Land Securities by more than 30 per cent (*2) - is heralding the death knoll for the high street.

LOST ONLINE SALES RECOVERED
Online competitive pressure will intensify for all firms, regardless of industry. To continue to be profitable in this tougher environment, companies will be forced to review and tighten up their e-commerce operations to achieve maximum return on investment (ROI). Recent research from SciVisum found that one third of consumer online journeys experience more than three per cent error rates, and more than 10 percent suffer from extreme inconsistencies in delivery speed of the journey. These invisible errors impact 2-5 percent of journeys, but are invisible to Web analytics and Web logging because they are sporadic. Slow and inconsistent page speeds, or errors that throw the user back three pages and mean they have to re-enter their basket items, pushes customers to competitors. In 2008 firms will focus more resources on eliminating the sporadic errors that impact a user-journey to ensure that marketing and advertising investment spent in attracting customers to the site is not wasted.

2008 will see corporate personnel take ownership of their company’s e-commerce activities. Because of this change at the top, their will be a shift in the performance metrics used to assess Web sites. SciVisum’s own research found that it is business and marketing personnel that are most aware when there is an issue with their website. However, business personnel have historically been fobbed off by the IT department’s use of irrelevant data and metrics that indicate the site is performing well from a metrics perspective. In 2008 we will see business people push back when this occurs, only accepting data that is relevant to the user experience.

Where sales figures used to be enough, the head of the Web site next year will be demanding hard metrics that provide an accurate picture of the user journey and highlight any issues that may be being experienced. The hard metrics demanded will enable a more informed choice about which remedy will deliver the best ROI, and will mean that the IT department no longer pushes for an upgrade to Microsoft SQL server 200x when there is an option to fix a one per cent sporadic error.

NET NEUTRALITY DECLINES

Increased fears over global bandwidth shortages will enable Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to charge a significant tax for organisations that currently offer video download services for free. These charges will in turn be passed onto the user, based upon the amount of content they download, and will lead to the decline of net neutrality - the principle that data on the Internet is moved blindly and impartially, without regard to content, destination or source.

The assertion by US research firm, Nemertes Research, that user demand may outpace network capacity by 2010 (*3) will not materialise. However, we will increasingly see opinions that this will occur and the fear that demand will exceed capacity will enable the ISPs to act.

Internet giant Google's offering for the mobile phones -- the Android platform -- is aimed at increasing the mobile penetration in emerging markets, as the number of personalized cell phones is higher than PC penetration.

The technology will drive low-cost handsets, thus making communication cheaper and affordable with the advantages of Web 2.0.

Affordable communication
Android, the Java over Linux platform, is not just a mobile platform, but much more than that. According to Andy Rubin, director for Mobile Platforms at Google Inc., Android is the first step in making the software for mobile phones much affordable than the legacy systems.

"Android will enable better Internet user experience. Though the handset prices have come down phenomenally due to the mass production in China and Taiwan, cell phones are still a costly proposition, as majority of the cost is involved in the software platform," he said.

With the platform being made available for the developer community from next week, Google expects an Internet-ready smart-phone to cost about $100-150 in the next couple of years.

Web 2.0 to Mobile 2.0
Google, which shot to fame with its innovative products and solutions in the Web space, aims to replicate its success in the next phase through the convergence of the cell phone and the Internet.

"Android will be the world's first mass-up platform for the mobile segment. This will bridge the island between the Internet and the mobile phone," Rubin told CyberMedia News during a conference call from the US.

"People want to communicate with mobile phones, they want to be connected with their social and community networks. The complete web-browser experience is missing and Android will fill the gap," he asserted.

Google acquired Android in 2005. Palo Alto-based Android was just 22-months-old when Google acquired it. Incidentally, Rubin, who founded Android, had also worked with Apple.

Power of partnership
When asked about its competitors in the mobile space, namely Microsoft and Nokia, Rubin pointed out the issue of Apache Portable Runtime (APR). "The opening of the APR alone by the two companies does not help the industry, as no differentiated services can be built by the developer community. However, through the Open Handset Alliance, the codes for building the killer-applications on Android is made available," he added.

And that"s only one part of the story! The developers will have the say in building the next generation applications on the Android platform, with HTC launching the first series of mobile phones in the second half of next year.

Apart from the developer community, Google has also ensured that it is a win-win game for all stakeholders in the mobile business. "We will be interacting with each one of our partners who have been segregated as five categories: semiconductor companies, content providers, service providers, mobile phone manufacturers and developers -- through the Open Handset Alliance (OHA). The only criterion for our partnership is that the partners should contribute something for the development of the applications," Rubin said.

Through the OHA, in which Google has 33 members, the Internet-major has ensured that all the stakeholders are involved in the final building of applications, and hence making the software is more user-friendly.

The members featuring in the OHA are T-Mobile, manufacturers such as HTC, Qualcomm, and Motorola along with Nvidia, eBay and Texas Instruments. Nokia, Symbian, Microsoft, Apple, Red Hat, Sun Microsystems, Verizon, AT&T, SAP, Sybase and Oracle have so far dissociated themselves from the OHA.

Symbian, Microsoft and Apple were unison in their opinion that Android does not pose a threat to their operating systems. Nokia too, seconded the view. Finnish giant Nokia holds 47.9 percent in Symbian, the leader in mobile device operating systems.

A million G-phones
Rubin did not rule out Google phone or the G-phone being rolled out in future. However, he said that if and when the G-phone is launched, Android will be the first and best choice.

"We are not announcing G-phone, but when a G-phone is built on this, it will be so open and so sensible, very different, innovation, and Android will be the best choice. However, through the Open Handset Alliance, it is not just building a single G-Phone but a million G-phones," he said.